BY C.J. MCGINLEY 180507
DONEGAL South West was once labelled the most boring constituency in the country, but not any more. This is expected to be the most keenly contested election in years with the possibility of the constituency electing its first Sinn Féin TD in 84 years.
Peadar O'Donnell was the last back in 1923 and the big question now is can Councillor Pearse Doherty become the next.
According to opinion polls the only man standing between him and that distinction is sitting Minister Pat the Cope Gallagher.
Sitting Fianna Fail Minister Mary Coughlan will comfortably top the poll. Deputy Dinny McGinley is being tipped to take the second seat with Minister Gallagher and Councillor Doherty locked in a battle for the third seat.
According to the latest poll this week he stands at 26 per cent of the vote. Mary Coughlan is tipped to top the poll with 33 per cent while Sinn Féin's Pearse Doherty (19 per cent) and Minister Pat the Cope Gallagher (15 per cent) locked in a battle for the third seat. However, aided by Minister Coughlan's surplus and transfers Minister Gallagher is tipped to take the third seat.
The poll put Fianna Fáil taking over 48 per cent of the first preferences.
The other three candidates in the race are Labour's Seamus Rodgers (4 per cent), Independent John Doherty (2 per cent) Sean Maolchallan of the Green Part (1 per cent).
With the supplement to the electoral register still to be finalised the electorate stands at 60,813, a sharp rise from 2002 when the figure was 54,628.
The reason for the increase was the re-drawing of the constituency boundary which put over 4,500 voters from the East Donegal areas of Lifford, Raphoe, Cloughfin, Ballindrait and Boyagh into the South West constituency. With six of the seven candidates from the Glenties Electoral Area every vote is priceless in this part of the constituency.
In the last general election Fianna Fáil took over forty two per cent of the first preference vote. There was a turnout of 65 per cent and the quota was 8,909.
Pat the Cope Gallagher topped the poll with 7,740 (20.6 per cent) followed by Mary Coughlan just five hundred votes behind. The duo are now hoping to successfully fight their fourth election together.
Deputy Coughlan, who has since been promoted to the post of Agriculture Minister, topped the poll in over half of the 46 booths in the Donegal Electoral Area including her strongholds such as Bruckless, Donegal Town, Frosses, Laghey and Mountcharles. Deputy Gallagher polled extremely well in the Glenties area where he got 4,823 votes. This time with six candidates from this electoral areas the 'split' of the vote will be crucial to all candidates.
Fine Gael Deputy Dinny McGinley (63), is fighting his ninth general election campaign and reversed a decision to retire from politics back in March. He has held a seat in Donegal South West since 1982.
In a poll back in March Deputy McGinley polled just 11 per cent of the first preferences, four per cent behind Sinn Fein's Pearse Doherty. The poll showed Cllr Doherty polling much better in each of the electoral areas than Deputy McGinley except by a narrow margin of just one per cent in Glenties, their home bases.
In that poll commissioned by Raidio na Gaeltachta Cllr Doherty polled almost double the first preference votes in the Stranorlar Electoral Area than Deputy McGinley which could be as a result of the ongoing Harte fall out and the fact that Sinn Fein have Councillor Tony McDaid in the area.
On the key issue of second preferences the poll makes very interesting reading. One in two of Coughlan's votes would fall back to her party colleague Pat the Cope Gallagher with Cllr Doherty (13 per cent) gaining a slight edge on Deputy McGinley (12 per cent). However, Cllr Doherty benefits by almost two to one on outgoing Deputy McGinley (19 per cent to 10 per cent) on the second preferences transfers of Junior Minister Gallagher. Deputy McGinley said this week the poll was 'ridiculously out of line' with what he was getting on the doorsteps.
"I think the poll was ridiculously out of line with what we're getting on the doorsteps. That poll put us at around 12 per cent of the first preferences - that's less than half of what we had in the last general election.
"The Fine Gael vote has not evaporated - in fact the opposite is the case from the feedback we're getting," Deputy McGinley said.
"I've been less confident going into other elections in the past. There is a strong mood for change out there and it would be disastrous for this constituency if there was a Fine Gael-Labour government and we hadn't a voice from this area in that administration," he said.
Deputy McGinley has been the lone opposition voice in Donegal where five of the six TDs have supported the government for the past decade.
However, Councillor Doherty feels he is well poised to take the seat. Speaking to the Donegal News in Gweedore on Monday, Cllr Doherty, said it was time for a 'new type of politics'.
"I've no doubt there is a strong mood for change in this election. I've been on the doorsteps since January and people want to see Sinn Féin represent them in the Dáil after this election. It looks like the two sitting Fianna Fail TDs are going to be returned and the polls show we are ahead for the third seat. However, we're not being complacent, we know we have to convince about 9,500 people to give us their vote, but based on the response on the doorsteps people are prepared to vote for Sinn Féin in this election," he said.
Cllr Doherty polled 2,696 or just over 7.5 per cent of the first preference votes in the last general election. His running mate Tom Dignam got 1,133 first preferences. However, with the polls putting the Sinn Féin vote at around 19 per cent in this election Cllr Doherty is convinced the party will take a seat.
In the last general election, Labour's Seamus Rodgers secured just over 1,000 votes. The fact there is no Independent Fianna Fáil candidate in the constituency this time round is a big factor.
In the 2002 general election Joe Kelly from Falcarragh, son of former IFF Councillor Paddy, polled 3,091 votes. Just where they go this time round will be very interesting. Sinn Féin will benefit but it will be interesting to see how many go to Fianna Fail following the amalgamation of the parties last July.
Independent candidate John Doherty from Annagry is campaigning mainly on health and planning while the Green Party field Sean Maolchallan will be hoping to take advantage of the growing support across the country in this constituency.
