BY MAURICE KENNEDY

FOR some time now Fianna Fail has been dipping its toes in the North without fully committing itself to electoral politics here. News that Fermanagh MLA Gerry McHugh has signed up could well galvanise those who have been calling for full-scale engagement, but anybody who thinks that this latest move signals a seismic change in direction for the Soldiers of Destiny is getting ahead of themselves.

Whatever about Gerry McHugh's personal politics - and he himself admits that a MLA who happens to be a member of Fianna Fail is not the same as a Fianna Fail MLA - it would seem highly unlikely at this delicate stage of the political process that the Dublin government would want to upset the dynamic between it and the two nationalist parties in the North.

Traditionally Fianna Fail has been closely aligned with the SDLP but in recent years as Sinn Fein has assumed the mantle of main nationalist party in the North the senior partner in the Dublin government has had to adjust accordingly. Bertie Ahern has worked painstakingly to reposition the party as honest brokers with no selfish interest in the electoral rivalry between the two nationalist blocs in the North.

Having consciously detached itself from the increasingly bitter squabbling between Sinn Fein and the SDLP it would make very little sense at this stage for Fianna Fail to get involved in electoral poltics here effectively pitting itself against its two partners in the peace process.

That's not to say that it happen down the line - and an eventual morphing with its more natural bedfellows, the SDLP, is still something that cannot be entirely ruled out - but with a Westminster election likely in the late spring and an SDLP leadership battle in February the timing for such a move would be all wrong.

That said, it is significant that Fianna Fail has chosen to canvass opinion in Fermanagh where there has clearly been growing disaffection with Sinn Fein as evidenced by the defection of three of its councillors.

The SDLP too has been struggling in the constituency over the past number of years with a falling share of the nationalist vote.

Make no mistake - if Fianna Fail does eventually throw its hat in the ring it will have enormous implications for politics right across the North - but all the indications are that it will think long and hard for some time yet before making such a radical departure.