By John Martin
What odds for Waterford to stop a Kilkenny three-in-a-row for the second time in two years? After the final whistle of last year's league final, Kilkenny manager Brian Cody managed a wry smile as he turned to Justin McCarthy and congratulated him on Waterford's first national title in 44 years.
It's fair to say that Davy Fitzgerald won't be seeing the whites of Cody's teeth if Waterford are ahead when Barry Kelly blows the final whistle at about 4.55pm on Sunday evening. Losing a league final is one thing but halting Kilkenny's first championship three-in-a-row since 1913 and simultaneously stopping the Cats from overtaking Cork at the top of the Roll of Honour is a different ball park completely.
In fact if the Cats win on Sunday, it will be their first 'proper' three in a row. Their one and only 'back-to-back-to-back' triumph was tainted slightly by the refusal of Limerick to play the 1911 final due to a venue dispute, so Kilkenny were awarded the McCarthy Cup in a committee room rather than on the steps of the Hogan Stand.
They have been denied the three in a row on a number of occasions since, most recently in 2004 when Cork curbed Cody's history-making hat-trick. Still, no matter what happens on Sunday, having failed only twice in reaching the All Ireland final in his 10 years in charge, Cody scarcely needs a three-in-a-row to go down as he greatest manager of all time.
He would dearly love to do it however, and no matter how many times he says that "it isn't an issue in the Kilkenny camp", you can rest assured that Cody would desperately love that accolade on his CV.
Before a ball was pucked in this year's championship, it has been Kilkenny's to lose. That is still the case but Waterford are the team they least wanted to see opposite them on the first Sunday in September.
The bookies give Waterford a 3-1 chance. That's probably about right. If these sides meet four times, you'd expect Kilkenny to win three of them. Waterford need to ensure that Sunday is their game in four.
And they can do it. Championship meetings between the sides in recent years have been close. Kilkenny won by a point in 1998 and by three in 2004. Waterford have been knocking on the door for the past five or six seasons. They haven't been beaten by more than five points in the championship since 2002 and have arguably been the second best side in the country for the last three years. We know what to expect from the Kilkenny machine - but where can Waterford find those extra few scores to get them over the line for the first time since 1959?
There have been a few developments in the past 12 months that should give the Deise faithful hope ahead of their date with destiny. The full back line, although having played just one game with Declan Prendergast at the edge of the square, looked more solid than at any time against a top five county in the past five or six seasons. Ken McGrath's two-game spell at number three may also have given him a bit more of an appreciation of what his full back wants from a centre half back.
Eoin Kelly's emergence as an out and out full forward has also come as a welcome surprise to many Waterford folk. He has always had the talent but this season he has outshone John Mullane and Dan Shanahan and must already have the Hurler of the Year gong in the bag, no matter what happens on Sunday. And while Shanahan may not be the scoring machine he was last year, both he and Eoin McGrath are proving the perfect foil for Kelly who has been on fire all year.
Clinton Hennessy has also matured as a keeper this season and seems more commanding than in previous years which has in turn shored up the notoriously porous Waterford defence.
Another key area was the Waterford substitutions. Justin McCarthy had often been criticised for his sluggishness in making substitutions. Fitzgerald brought on Jack Kennedy against Tipp and it proved an inspired move by the Clareman. The raft of substitutions that disrupted the dying minutes of the semi-final were also the mark of a manager with a touch more streetwise savvy.
Kevin Moran's first start at half back against Tipp fitted the De La Salle man like a glove, but the find of the season however has to be Jamie Nagle. The Dungarvan man was always highly rated by McCarthy but injury kept him from breaking into the side at an earlier date.
He came on against Antrim and kept his place for the Offaly, Wexford and Tipp games. He is an uncomplicated hurler who wins lots of breaking ball and scrappy possession in the middle of the park, and plays quality ball into the forwards - what more do you want from a midfielder. Despite playing his club hurling with intermediate side Dungarvan, playing only his fourth full championship game, and being just 20 years-old, Nagle can have a major say in where Liam McCarthy will be spending the next 12 months.
I don't expect the 2008 decider to become known as the Jamie Nagle final, but if Waterford win, Nagle will have played well.
So after all that, can Waterford win? The answer is yes. The smart money remains on Kilkenny but it will be close, very close. My head says that despite the new-found grittiness in Waterford this year, Kilkenny will still grind out the win, but at 12-1, I'll be having a few quid on the draw.
The last drawn hurling final was back in 1959 - between Kilkenny and Waterford. The Deise can at least make them wait two more weeks for their three-in-a-row.
