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Total Stories: 30          Published: Thu, Jan 14, 2010



It's not just a Robinson affair

Who could have imagined that the roving eye of Iris Robinson could lead to the collapse of the entire government of Northern Ireland.

And yet in an unprecedented week in politics here, that is what is likely to happen.

As jaws dropped around the country on Thursday night as thousands watched the revelations unfold on the Spotlight programme, it became abundantly clear that not only was this a personal affair, it also had wide-reaching implications for the whole of the North.

Iris Robinson's actions in procuring financial donations for her 19-year-old lover, also threw the spotlight on to her husband, the First Minister Peter Robinson.

And the questions about how much he knew, when he knew it, and what exactly he did about it, just won't go away.

On Monday Peter Robinson was forced to step aside in his role as First Minister and it is hard to see any way back for him.

If after six weeks the DUP forces Mr Robinson to resign, then this will spark a crisis in the Assembly.

The Office of First Minister and Deputy First Minister is a single unit and in order for the DUP to nominate a replacement for Mr Robinson, Sinn Féin would have to nominate Martin McGuinness or an alternative.

However, if Sinn Féin has not got a date for the devolution of policing and justice powers then it can refuse to nominate and this would lead to political deadlock.

If Sinn Féin fails to nominate, an agreement between the two parties must be reached within seven days, otherwise this would mean a Stormont election just weeks before a general election and the DUP will find itself in the worst possible position, taking to the doorsteps asking for votes in the wake of the Robinson affair.

The fall-out from the Robinson scandal has badly damaged the DUP, and it will see huge numbers of voters looking for an alternative.

If an election is sparked the big winners are likely to be Sinn Féin, which may become the largest party in Northern Ireland - automatically giving it the post of First Minister - something which may very well prove a step too far for even the most liberal minded in the Unionist community.



  
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