The votes have all been cast and counted in the Irish election. But that does not mean that it is all over, in the sense that the shape of the next government in the 30th Dáil. Bertie Ahern, as leader of the biggest political party, has notched up a total of 78 seats, three down on the 1992 figure. The leader of Fine Gael, the second biggest party, counts up the FG, Labour and Green Party votes and points to a total of 77. The alternative FG-Labour-Green coalition came close, but whereas Mr Kenny has not conceded that he will not be the next Taoiseach, the momentum is with Mr Ahern.
There are 166 deputies in Dáil Éireann, 165 if you exclude the Ceann Caothairle, or Speaker. That makes 83 the number required for a majority of one. That single vote is enough to assure a parliamentary majority, but the margin is very narrow – the defection or death of a TD (and such things happen) could see the government turfed out. The Taoiseach, in the interviews he has given since the election, has not given away much of his thinking. He nevertheless indicated that the key factor in his new line-up would have to be stability– the full five years.
Many observers are of the opinon that Mr Ahern's first port of call will be with the Progressive Democrats, now reduced from eight to two, but allies of Fianna Fáil over the last ten years, Mr Ahern's entire term as Taoiseach. One of the two survivors is Mary Harney, and there is a general feeling that Ms Harney should be given an opportunity to retain the Health brief, and see through the reforms of the health service which she has inititated. The future of the PDs may be uncertain, but they might console themselves that in the 20 odd years of their existence they have heavily influenced Fianna Fáil in such areas as lower taxes for the upper earning bracket, a liberal approach to family law and a less irredentist policy on the North. On the face of it, Bertie could do business with the PDs, particularly since the departure of the abrasive Mr McDowell.
But for all that, there are only two PDs. The number of Independent TDs returned to the next Dáil is reduced to five: the left-wing Dublin deputy Tony Gregory who exacted a high price from Charles Haughey as the cost of his support to elect Haughey as Taoisech in 1982, another Dublin socialist Finian McGrath, the former Fine Gael minister Michael Lowery, the former FF deputy Beverley Cooper Flynn and the veteran 76-year-old Kerry TD Jackie Healy-Rae, who was one of a "gang of four" Independents who provided support for the FF-PD coalition of 1997-2002. Some of these would be anxious to do the business with Mr Ahern, but he would not necessarily be all that anxious to treat with some or all of them, for one reason or another. But needs must when the devil drives.
The focus will also settle upon the Green Party whose six TDs, along with the PDs, would leave Mr Ahern in a more comfortable position. The Greens have considered their willingness to go for it, but Mr Ahern may well feel that, Fianna Fáil's ideological conversion to environmental issues nothwithstanding, there are bound to be frictions and tensions and a danger that this partnership would not last out the full five years. Fianna Fáil, these days, is the party of choice for developers and builders, not the flavour of the month with the Greens; and there is also a perception that Green politics could antagonise many of the farming community, many of whom have always been rock-solid FF supporters.
Tony Gregory has said that, whereas he has had an approach from Fine Gael, no one from Fianna Fáil has yet rung his phone. He is of the belief that, notwithstanding all the hoopla about Independents, Greens and even PDs in the next government, the real Fianna Fáil game plan is to approach the 20-strong Labour Party. Labour leader Pat Rabbitte has long set his face against such an arrangement, but he is no longer tied to Fine Gael and the Labour Party may well be persuaded to join Bertie "in the national interest," with or without Mr Rabbitte. But even at that, whereas Labour backbenchers might be happy to vote alongside their FF counterparts, all the big beasts of the outgoing cabinet have been returned handsomely and may well grumble about four or five ministerial posts going to Labour. For Labour will demand a high price, and will not be content to settle for such thankless briefs as Health or Justice. The PDs held those posts in the last government and took a lot of the flak for the shortcomings of that administration.
It is early days yet. The new Dáil is to assemble on June 14 and by then Bertie Ahern should have his team ready to take the field.
In evidence, the court heard that the plaintiff had taken an action against a local hostelry, after he alleged that he had been assaulted on the premises by a member of staff. The plaintiff had been a member of a small party, all of whom had come from a neighbouring town, none of them having ever been inside the premises before. The trouble started when the plaintiff queried the cost accuracy of a round of drinks which had been served. One word borrowed another with the consequence that the bar manager drew out and hit the plaintiff "a thump". The plaintiff told the court that the manager had been surly and unwelcoming from the outset. "He didn't strike this customer," said the RM, "as a very friendly bloke."
The 'Father Noise' saga took another twist last week. In 2004 a bronze plaque appeared on Dublin's O'Connell Bridge, commemorating a Fr Pat Noise who died when his carriage plunged into the Liffey on August 10, 1919. In 2006, the Sunday Tribune brought the matter to the attention of the Dublin Corporation, which had it removed.
The plaque is something of a hoax. There never was a Fr Patrick Noise. The plaque is believed to be the handiwork of two Dublin brothers, in memory of their father, the "Pat Noise" being a bog translation of the Latin "pater noster" (our father). The plaque was put back again earlier this year and, although workmen were poised to remove it again, the Corporation voted to preserve it "as a monument to Dublin eccentricity".
From Raymond's Guide to English, as understood in Ireland:
Raparee: a guy who knocks a pub door after closing time.
Punctuality: a form of Chinese medical treatment, using pins and needles.
Litter: offspring of dogs, pigs, etc.
From recent BBC radio quiz.
Q. What, according to the Bible was the name of the first man?
A. Tony.
And so the English soccer season ends. Always a source of good quotes, the pick of the crop was Everton player Phil Neville's remark that "fourth spot is what we are aiming for. We won't settle for second best."
Last week's Herald announces: "Council Launches Wind Turbine." At least that is one energy source that won't run out.
